This is a tribute to the gallant warriors who have braved all odds to defeat LTTE terror and show the International community that the War against terror can be won by military means as well. This tribute is primarily to those who were in the arena, without whom anything was possible. May the blessings of the triple gem guide and protect them in all their future endeavours.

The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust — sweat and blood; who strives valiantly... and who at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly,

So that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat.
                                                                                                                                                  - Theodore Roosevelt –

The prospect of a military defeat of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam is becoming more real as troops close in on them from seven directions. The navy is patrolling the coastline to prevent the Tiger leadership from escaping by sea and to stymie attempts to smuggle in weaponry. The air force is keeping up a constant attack on strategic LTTE positions. What will happen next?

The LTTE have been declared the world’s most ruthless terrorist organization by the Federal Bureau of Investigation because they committed the highest number of suicide attacks in the world, through the use of Black Tigers. They have trained ground, sea and air cadres and assets. They have effectively used stealth and cutting-edge technology to carry out a prolonged campaign of terror and violence in Sri Lanka. Despite being banned in over 30 countries, the Tamil Diaspora and propaganda machinery have enabled the LTTE to market themselves as freedom fighters who are the ‘sole’ representatives of the ‘oppressed’ Tamils in Sri Lanka.

Options

The current options for the LTTE are to fight to the last, which is very unlikely; surrender to the advancing army, which is unlikely; or to merge with civilians and look for safe passage to government-controlled areas after caching their arms. The last avenue seems very likely where ordinary cadres are concerned, but difficult for the Tiger leadership to pull off. Therefore, the Tiger leadership will try to slip through the cordon and disguise themselves as civilians to escape into another country by boat, which is difficult but not impossible. They may also attempt to come to Colombo and fly out with support from local and foreign agents or sympathizers.
Some analysts have felt that the LTTE are keeping their finest cadres till the end, to spring a bloody, last-minute attack on the army that will leave the government reeling. But these same analysts had also said that Kilinochchi would be “the last battle”. The LTTE have tried everything but failed. Even if they attempt some desperate attacks, these will have no impact on the final outcome, which is their defeat. It is too late and there is too little space to counter-attack. The civilians and mines are the only obstacles in the path of the advancing army now. The LTTE are restricted in the use of heavy weapons (mainly artillery and mortars) due to the high risk of detection and they are also crippled by low availability of ammunition.

Prabhakaran

There is much speculation now about what Velupillai Prabhakaran will do. Some say he has already escaped the army and fled the country. This would have had to be done by sea but several reports say he was reportedly in Sri Lanka after the fall of Killinochchi.
This is also a subtle hint at the navy’s inability to stop LTTE Sea Tiger activity. In fact, the Sea Tigers till early last year were a daring force that took on the navy and also supplied the LTTE with sustenance in the ongoing battle. It was only after the liberation of Pooneryn on 15th November 2008 and the sealing of the western seaboard that the LTTE had gone into rapid decline. In a period of just 70 days the advancing troops have liberated Paranthan, Killinochchi, Elephant pass and Mullaitivu. It will take a bit longer to mop up the remaining LTTE cadres who have taken refuge with the very same Tamil civilians they proclaim to represent.

The options for Prabhakaran, assuming he is still in Sri Lanka: Take cyanide; die due to ill health, such as a heart attack brought on by the pressure of defeat; fight till the very last, which is most likely provided he has the physical endurance to stand that test.
As for civilians currently trapped in LTTE controlled areas, the genuine ones will try to escape from Tiger clutches by hiding or evading the remaining cadres. LTTE sympathizers will also try to do the same, but not as vigorously as the others. The army must be extremely cautious and careful. When approaching known civilian habitation, they must use loudhailers to constantly announce in Tamil for civilians to leave the LTTE controlled areas and enter the government designated safe zones.

Questions have been asked about what happened to the Tiger aircraft. The army has found at least six airstrips and one hangar but no aircraft. These planes came in crates so they will go back into those crates and be buried, in the hope that they can be recovered in the future.

Caution

The Tigers have been innovative in the past but I doubt that they will have designed any weapons that can be used in the final stages of the war. Their surprise weapons might be suicide cadres, gas attacks or a last-ditch night attack. The first two options would be negative due to civilian presence and the last will have no impact because the advancing forces are too many (over seven thrust lines) to have an impact. But routine precautions have to be taken by advancing troops.
The army’s casualties will now be mainly by improvised explosive devices, mines, booby traps or sniper fire but a cautious approach is needed to minimize casualties. The LTTE casualties will be caused by gunshot, air, artillery or mortar fire, or naval gunfire if they try to escape by sea. It is difficult to give figures (see diagram and notes for ease of understanding) and I would not want to guess, either, but I do believe that the “only good terrorists are dead terrorists”.

The military must now be cautious and avoid causing civilian casualties. They also need to minimize their own casualties because the major part of operations is over and there is only mopping up to be done. The government must ensure as a priority that all civilians are protected, rehabilitated and resettled. They must open the A-9 as soon as it is practically possible, to connect the people of the North and the South. They need to get truthful, firsthand information out to the world to negate the LTTE’s false propaganda at the earliest. They must also offer a workable political solution agreed to by all parties to all Sri Lankans.

Subversion

The LTTE are certainly in disarray but they haven’t reached the panic stage just yet. This may be due to Prabhakaran’s continued presence in and around Mullaitivu. The LTTE, as a militant organization, is certainly kaput. It only remains for the final nail to be driven into their coffin and this will come with the fall of Mullaitivu (it did on 25th January 2009). They cannot now bring the government to its knees because they are on their knees themselves. We have been using only military means to tackle the LTTE but the real danger is SUBVERSION. That is what we must look out for and find solutions to in the future.

This is what Dr Gerard Chaliand, a French expert in armed conflict studies, has to say about subversion:

 “In clear language, the political underground infrastructure consist those people who are organized sympathizers unknown to the enemy, who will inform you, help you, supply you, hide you, and give to you their sons and their daughters. This is vital. No guerrilla movement can survive in the long run if they don’t have a political underground infrastructure. All the job of counter-insurgency is to try to get the political underground infrastructure and eliminate it. This is a very difficult and a dirty job.”

GOVERNMENT RESPONSE TO SUBVERSION / INSURGENCY
ALLEGIANCE OF THE PEOPLE
Clash of wills – same resources / use of violence / prolonged process

GOVT / MILITARY RESPONSE-NATIONAL PLAN

1. Political process- devolution of power
2. Socio-economic development – to address issues of poverty, unemployment and COL.
3. Legal process – Police/Judicial powers – Liberty vs. Security.
4. Public Info (media), Psy Ops and Propaganda – to build National Will. To counter the Tamil Diaspora that provided funds and propaganda to sustain the LTTE prolonging the conflict.
5. Military action (find, fix, strike) – military strategy in liaison with the overall govt. plan. Includes tasks for the Police to maintain law and order.
6. National Intelligence Bureau – identify the insurgents/ subversives. Should supersede the Security Forces at National level.

If you look at the diagram used in this article, the greater part of the pyramid is not visible. What is visible, and manifestly clear to the average person, is the violence at the top which is being tackled by the security forces (army, navy, air force and police). The other sections of the pyramid must be handled by the government agencies at national level, not necessarily by the security forces. Since supporters of the LTTE will continue to join the armed cadres there will always be numbers and killing them alone will not solve the problem. The LTTE have even used under-aged children who have been indoctrinated and used as combatant’s inspite of being banned by international law.


The way forward

The military and the government need to be magnanimous in victory and avoid overreaction through celebrations (partying). We should be reminded by the wise words of the late mother Theresa of Calcutta who said, “When you are successful you win some unfaithful friends and some genuine enemies.” Therefore we must remain ever vigilant because innocent Tamil civilians will find it difficult to reconcile and live with us as Sri Lankans in the future. Remember that eternal vigilance is the price of liberty.

In my view, our message should be that this is the best time to unite as a nation by sinking our differences and facing the future as Sri Lankans. The sacrifice (over 30,000 heroes killed in action and countless numbers wounded whilst many innocent civilians have lost their lives after being caught up in this campaign of terror unleashed by the ruthless terrorists) and victory of our armed forces over the terrorists should unify us and help build national will to face the many challenges of the future. The Government needs to lead the way in restoring democracy and rebuilding our nation with the support of all Sri Lankans.

Let John F Kennedy’s clarion call to his countrymen be our guide to the future.

“Ask not what your country can do for you, but what you can do for your country.”